Thursday, December 20, 2007

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Sunday, September 16, 2007

Real Estate is changing

Much has been written about the changes coming to the real estate industry as a result of the slowing market. But aside from the possibilities of a handful fewer brokerages, what you’ll see at the end of this lull likely will look quite a bit like what you saw at the beginning.

Maybe it shouldn’t be that way. But that’s the way things seem to turn out.

This is the time when there should be a premium on training, but many of the brokerages who will look most attractive to new agents (read: higher splits of the commission) offer limited training. Here’s a hint … if your broker doesn’t offer a class where you go through the contract line by line, find one who does. The contract is your lifeblood and that of your clients, and if you don’t know it you and they are better off with you not being in business.

This is the time when there should be a premium on mentoring, but most of the mentoring programs are financially weighted heavily in favor of the brokers, chasing many agents off to seemingly greener pastures.

This is the time when pricing should be the key consideration for sellers. But the influx of new agents blinded by dollar signs and oblivious to the market realities means sellers always will be able to find an agent for their listing regardless of the price.

This is the time when many observers believe technology and the Internet will put enough pressure on real estate commissions to drive down what agents charge, whatever amount that may be. But the reality is commissions likely will rise as only a smaller segment of the agent population proves able to successfully sell a home. The idea of disintermediation loses some of its sway in a slower market, where it’s not enough to plant a sign in your front yard and wait for the buyers to come.

When there were more transactions taking place, formal training often could give way (to some degree, at least) to on-the-job learning. But it’s all but impossible to gain the needed skills and maintain those skills with one transaction every few months. And experience has shown few agents make the effort to extend themselves and stay current on changes in the market.

There’s a fanciful notion that the slower market will clear out all the marginal agents - those with little ability, little motivative, little knowledge, etc. And true, many agents who entered the market in 2004 now are seeking full-time employment elsewhere (assuming they didn’t get their license to practice real estate part-time on the side.)

But the ranks keep refilling like sharks’ teeth … another row of brand new agents stands ready to start writing checks as those in front of them fall out of the industry. The supply of those ready to make their fortunes as real estate agents is nearly endless.

If anything changes, it will be a return to the historic failure rates of new agents. It’s often said 90% of new agents never make it through their first year. That figure dropped back in 2005 when even Tobey could have sold a house without my assistance, assuming he had passed the licensing exams.

These days, however, many who enter soon will realize they likely shouldn’t have done so.

Friday, August 10, 2007

Mortgage meltdown contagion

Mortgage meltdown contagion
A grim forecast has economists more pessimistic over how far the collapse will spread to the rest of the economy.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
August 10 2007: 1:52 PM EDT


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The outlook for the housing market looks even bleaker than it did a week ago. Last Friday we reported that foreclosures were skyrocketing, home prices falling and recovery forecasts were being scaled back.

And now this week, the mortgage meltdown spread to the financial markets with ebola-like speed, sparking fears that tighter credit will have a broader impact on consumers, markets and the economy.

The U.S. government continues to downplay the danger. When the Federal Reserve met this week, the central bank said that inflation is the greatest threat to the economy, not the mortgage crisis.

Yet, Countrywide Financial, the nation's largest mortgage lender by volume, reported Thursday that "unprecedented disruptions" in the mortgage market were forcing it to cut way back on the number of loans it was securitizing and selling in the secondary markets.

In the financial markets, credit, including corporate bonds, has become harder to get. Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Economy.com, had been loath to call it a "credit crunch." Instead, he called it a "liquidity squeeze," that had spread to corporate bond and other financial markets. The difference: In a crunch, nobody can get a loan; in a squeeze, only the riskier borrowers are cut out.

"I think it's still a liquidity squeeze," Zandi now says, "but it has elements of a credit crunch, affecting much of the mortgage market."

It has yet to severely disrupt the prime loan market, however, according to Zandi. The situation will continue until financial institutions revalue their mortgage-backed securities to what they're actually worth.

"They're faced with redemptions and margin calls, and they have to value their securities to their market prices because they have to sell them," said Zandi. That will determine how hard a hit the investment community will take.

Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital Inc. and author of "Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse," has said the problem goes way beyond subprime.

"It's a mortgage problem," he said. "Subprime is like a little leak where the underlying problem is the integrity of the dam itself. Most of the mortgages taken out during the past few years will fail."

Schiff expects huge losses in the housing market with home prices falling by half in some areas, which he said has to affect the overall economy. He said he'd been expecting the financial markets to start taking hits long before this week's drop.

"This week is making more sense," he said. "The economy is a basket case."

Most economists are nowhere near as pessimistic. Standard and Poor's chief economist, David Wyss, and Moody's Economy.com's chief economist, Mark Zandi, have forecast 8 percent price drops in the housing market, peak to trough.

Zandi does not believe a consumer spending slowdown is enough to trigger a recession, but he hasn't counted it out. What it will do, he said, is "ensure that the economy grows at a pace below its potential. I wouldn't dismiss the possibility of a recession. I put the possibility at one in five."

Ken Goldstein, an economist for the Conference Board, has said he doesn't believe the subprime contagion is enough to send the economy off-track, and that "the idea that average consumers are quaking over the prospects of losing their homes or much of their equity is wrong."

Your Home: When to cash out

The mortgage market adds up to about $10 trillion, according to Goldstein, with about 10 percent to 15 percent of that in subprime. Of that, some 15 percent or so is imperiled, he said.

"It's big, but not the tipping point that will bring the whole housing market down."

But on Friday Goldstein did concede that "The panic and concern over credit is even spreading across the pond to European markets."

On Friday the European Central Bank (ECB) pumped extra cash into the system for a second day in a row, as a means of calming nervous traders. The ECB added $83 billion in liquidity Friday.

The Federal Reserve followed suit, adding $19 billion in temporary reserves. The move was the biggest single temporary open market operation in four years, the New York Federal Reserve said, according to Reuters.

Subprime problems have not, so far, slowed consumption down much. The pace of consumer spending is still brisk, although growth slowed in June. And the Conference Board reported last week that consumer confidence is at a six-year high. Steady job growth and low unemployment (between 4.4 percent and 4.6 percent since September) have kept it that way.

Consumers don't really care much about changes in housing prices or, for that matter, in the stock market, according to Goldstein.

"If you really want to screw up consumer confidence," he said, "go for the jugular - the labor market."

Schiff, however, said, "What [the optimists] don't realize is that consumer spending has been a function of easy credit and the high housing market. The idea that Americans will keep spending is wrong. With [lower home equity and less access to credit] where're they going to get the money?"

According to Goldstein, though, as long as employment stays strong and workers' earnings grow substantially (4 percent annually, according to him), confidence - and spending - will remain high and the economy will chug along.

"Consumers can continue to stay resilient in the face of lower stock and home prices," he said. "Not only is the economy strong enough to survive the crisis, it's strong enough to quiet it."

Sunday, April 01, 2007

Has real estate really gone down that much?

The Keys News reports from Florida. “It took nearly an hour, but only a few minutes were needed Saturday for auctioneers to sell four residential properties and three commercial buildings. With less than 100 attendees at the auction, those in chairs seemed outnumbered by the agents moving around the room trying to generate bids.”

“A 2,000-square-foot home on Terry Lane sold for $800,000 and a 1,400-square-foot Terry Lane home sold for $500,000. In both cases, the bids were closed without any action from the crowd. Because of this, two similar properties on Terry Lane weren’t offered up for auction.”

“‘We didn’t feel like we were near where we could be, it was a disappointment,’ auction founder Ben Anderson said.”

“‘Has real estate really gone down that much?’ auctioneer Chris Camp asked after no one bid on a Third Street triplex that started out and sold for $600,000. ‘Yes,’ someone in the crowd retorted.”

“Anderson attributes buyers’ hesitation to the concern that the market hasn’t yet bottomed out. ‘It’s a buyers market and everything is shifting and changing,’ Anderson said, adding that buyers have ‘gotten off the bus.’”

“‘They’re going to walk around the block before they get back on,’ he said.”

The Montgomery Advertiser. “Colonial BancGroup Inc. has lent $6.4 billion for construction projects, five times the average for banks nationwide. Colonial lends money mostly to local homebuilders well known to loan officers, according to analyst Robert S. Patten.”

“Since 2000, Colonial has bought six Florida banks with assets of $3.5 billion. A seventh acquisition of a $1 billion-asset bank is pending. Many of the deals looked wise at the time because Florida’s economy was sizzling and home values were soaring.”

“Today, a Florida real estate bank must deal with plummeting sales and a growing list of abandoned projects, giving credence to the experts who told the Wall Street Journal that the state ‘is undergoing one of its worst housing recessions ever.’”

“‘Given that Colonial sees itself as primarily a real estate bank, they’re vulnerable,’ said Richard X. Bove, of specialty investment bank Punk Ziegel & Co.”

“Bove said the damage to banks with extensive Florida franchises has yet to show up in their financials. ‘Wait till next quarter,’ Bove said. ‘It’s not just Colonial. A lot of banks are going to have trouble. They’re all in a difficult environment right now.’”

The Sun Sentinel. “If home ownership is the American dream, the scene that plays out every week in Room 385 of the Broward County Courthouse is the American nightmare. ‘Case No. 06-19776,’ intoned the auctioneer, a foreclosure clerk named Barbara Pendergrass.”

“Near the back, Earl Lawrence leafed through his thick black binder and looked up the property, a small townhouse in Tamarac. Bought for $65,500 in September 2000, a foreclosure judgment for debts totaling $188,000 last December.”

“‘They borrowed themselves right out of a home,’ said Lawrence, of Hollywood, a real estate investor who has been coming to the public auctions for 25 years.”

“There were no bids on the Tamarac townhouse Thursday, apart from the minimum $100 that the foreclosing bank made to formally seize the property.”

“The real estate market has become so uncertain, and the debts racked up on these properties so high, even the vultures aren’t nibbling. ‘Would you buy a property for $420,000 if you could only sell it for $400,000?’ said Adnan Kabbara of Weston, a developer and contractor who has bought homes at auction for four years.”

“Properties that would have attracted a bidding war a year or two ago, when the real estate market was soaring, now stay with the lenders. The banks sell them through major national real estate firms, more frequently at a loss.”

“‘The party’s over,’ said Lawrence.”

“With more loans and homes skidding off the rails, the crowd in Room 385 isn’t going to thin anytime soon. As the auctioneer worked through the stack of folders on Thursday, investor John Derynda groaned that he should have brought lunch.”

“‘Two months from now,’ he said, ‘it’s only going to be worse.’”

“A few years ago, condo-hotels practically sold themselves. With real estate prices marching upward, the idea of owning a condo unit on the beach and covering some of the expenses through hotel rental payments seemed irresistible.”

“‘We weren’t salespeople, we were order takers,’ recalled Joel Greene, president of North Miami-based Condo Hotel Center.”

“Today, the market has sobered up. Condos aren’t selling and condo-hotels are caught in the same downdraft. In West Palm Beach, plans for The Harrick, a 138-unit condo-hotel at Lakeview Avenue and South Dixie Highway are on hold. ‘We’re redesigning it as a hotel,’ said developer David Gostfand. ‘The condo market is a little quiet at the moment.’”

“About 1,250 condo-hotel units have been opened in the past two years in Broward and Palm Beach counties, with another 2,500 units approved or under construction. That’s a small number compared with the 15,500 units proposed for Orlando or the 32,800 going up in Las Vegas.”

“Condo-hotel units that sold for $650 a square foot in the late 1990s are offered at $1,200 to $1,400 a square foot now. ‘The big question is with all these projects coming along at one time, are there enough luxury buyers?’ said (consultant) Jack McCabe.”

“Some developers concede that buyers must get a low price per square foot to have any hope of a return on their investment. Jim Clarke plans to begin construction on Clarkes Hotel, a 92-unit condo hotel in downtown West Palm Beach, within 60 days. ‘We’re virtually sold out, but our prices are low,’ said Clarke, who estimated an average unit costs $375,000.”

“Clarke cites a rule of thumb among hotel developers that to be profitable rooms should rent for a tenth of 1 percent of their building cost. If a buyer acquires a unit for $500,000, that translates to room rates of $500 a night.”

“‘That’s kind of hard to sustain down here,’ Clarke said.”

Friday, March 30, 2007

Will the foreclosure rate effect your refinance?

Real estate investing has changed since the closing of several lower tier banks. What will that do for people interested in getting into investing in real estate? It will definitely make it harder to cash out on a flip or rehab. I have used several B C and D credit banks like Freemont. I used Freemont several times and losing their special programs will make it much harder to get my houses financed, especially in the lower priced housing market. What can we do as investors to combat the tighter underwriting of the banks and mortgage companies that are left? The best way to work around the new rules is to offer lease purchase options or owner financing. Both of these options will allow you to get the house moved, but you will not be able to get your back end money without putting permanent financing on your investment property. I recommend trying a 2 or 3 year lease purchase. Please read my article on lease purchase options for more

Thursday, February 22, 2007

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Saturday, January 06, 2007

Student Loans and Consolidation Programs - How To Take Advantage To Help Your Education

If you're seriously interested in knowing about student loans, you need to think beyond the basics. This informative article takes a closer look at things you need to know about student loans and consolidation loans to help with your education.

The primary factor to keep in mind regarding a student loan is that it is not a determent or expense but rather an investment, for yourself. When you finish your college education, it will lead you to a satisfying job and more earnings during the course of your career.

Never let the weights of your student loans influence your credit. Take into consideration of consolidating your loans so it will be easier for you to pay them back.

A student consolidation loan program permits students to join together all unsettled and unpaid loans. For instance, when a certain student has four separate or individual loans, all can be consolidated into just one loan, if the student chooses to. Theoretically, all four loans will be regarded as paid and another loan will begin as replacement.

3 Advantages of Student Loan Consolidation

1. It is simple and convenient. When you have multiple loans, this means making several monthly payments; with this comes a lot of paperwork as well as keeping track of a lot of different due dates. With a student loan consolidation, there will only be one loan payment every month, making it more manageable.

2. Students can save money. For instance, a student having four unsettled loans can be obliged to pay $150 every month to all four lenders, which will amount to a total of $600 every month. After consolidation however, you are only required a single payment each month which will be of a lesser amount compared to all four payments combined. This can be an enormous saving for such students just starting on their jobs and do not have yet the wages or earnings needed to pay such a large amount of loan immediately.

3. It can open up added opportunities. Students can be granted deferment options as well as extra repayment chances. This additional flexibility may be beneficial for certain students wanting to continue or resume their schooling further, striving to locate employment or going through financial difficulty.

Check before getting a student loan or consolidation loan rate and plan of payment before you sign up.

See how much you can learn about student loans when you take a little time to read a well-researched article? Don't miss out on the rest of this great information.

The most evident way to acquiring the best student consolidation loan payment and rates is by possessing good credit. It will be easy to acquire an excellent student consolidation loan plan if one has a credit score more than 660 (FICO score). However, there are also a lot of ways to acquire the best student consolidation loan payment plans and rates.

A quick Internet search and examination on credit scores and FICO is needed in order for you to learn and get the information necessary so you can analyze your credit score.

Being aware of your credit history is one way to check your chances of acquiring the best student consolidation loan rates. Regularly examining records or documents of your finances is one good habit and can be of great help to determine your "student-loan-worthiness."

Student loan consolidation rates and programs can differ from one person to another. The rates being offered are based on one’s financial standing and credit. Generally, if one has a FICO score of 600 or less, getting a suitable student consolidation loan rate and proposal can be a challenge.

Always take into consideration the outlay of these 3 factors with student loans.

1. Remember too, that even if consolidation can make loan repayment easier and decrease your payment each month, it can also indicate an increase in the total outlay of paying back your loans. Consolidation offers lesser amount in monthly payments by granting borrowers a maximum of thirty years to pay back their loans; you create a lot of payments as well as pay extra in interest.

2. In fact, there are situations wherein consolidation doubles the total interest cost; so if you don't really require monthly payment assistance, you must evaluate the cost of paying back your loans which where unconsolidated in contrast to the cost of paying back a loan consolidation.

3. Note that the moment you consolidate your student loans, they are all used up and you can never go back. With the fact that you can only consolidate only once, you have to be certain that it's the best and guaranteed financial attempt that you can generate before carrying on.

It never hurts to be well-informed with the latest on student loans. Compare what you've learned here to future articles so that you can stay alert to changes in the area of student loans.